Val\u00ebt e t\u00eb nxehtit, that\u00ebsirat dhe zjarret po i kushtojn\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr sesa duket n\u00eb momentin e kriz\u00ebs. Fatura reale shfaqet muaj m\u00eb von\u00eb, p\u00ebrmes kompensimeve p\u00ebr fermer\u00ebt, riparimit t\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebs, humbjes s\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave nga taksat dhe rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb ushqimeve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Vera e nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr viti me temperatura rekord, that\u00ebsira dhe zjarre masive po l\u00eb pas nj\u00eb fatur\u00eb t\u00eb konsiderueshme p\u00ebr qeverit\u00eb evropiane. Megjithat\u00eb, kostoja e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb nuk shfaqet menj\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb bilancet publike. Ajo del n\u00eb pah muaj m\u00eb von\u00eb, kur qeverit\u00eb duhet t\u00eb financojn\u00eb ndihmat emergjente, kompensimet p\u00ebr fermer\u00ebt, riparimin e rrug\u00ebve dhe hekurudhave, mb\u00ebshtetjen e sh\u00ebrbimeve sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrballojn\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurat fiskale q\u00eb nuk u realizuan p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsimit ekonomik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u00eb fund t\u00eb korrikut, rreth gjysma e territorit t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb dhe Mbret\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb Bashkuar ishte n\u00ebn ndikimin e that\u00ebsir\u00ebs, nd\u00ebrsa 9% ndodhej n\u00eb faz\u00ebn m\u00eb ekstreme t\u00eb alarmit, sipas Observatorit Evropian t\u00eb That\u00ebsir\u00ebs t\u00eb Copernicus. N\u00eb gusht, lumenjt\u00eb Loire, Po, Rhine dhe Danub arrit\u00ebn nivele rekord t\u00eb ul\u00ebta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u00eb fillim t\u00eb gushtit, zjarret n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb kishin djegur m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 505 mij\u00eb hektar\u00eb, duke tejkaluar ritmin e s\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebs periudh\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2025, i cili ishte viti m\u00eb i keq i regjistruar deri at\u00ebher\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sipas Agjencis\u00eb Evropiane t\u00eb Mjedisit (EEA), moti ekstrem shkaktoi 822 miliard\u00eb euro humbje t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejta n\u00eb BE gjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs 1980\u20132024. Rreth nj\u00eb e kat\u00ebrta e k\u00ebsaj shume u regjistrua vet\u00ebm n\u00eb kat\u00ebr vitet e fundit. EEA paralajm\u00ebron se trendi i humbjeve ekonomike po rritet me rreth 3.4% n\u00eb vit dhe se t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat paraprake p\u00ebr vitin 2025 tregojn\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtim t\u00eb m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Problemi \u00ebsht\u00eb se pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e k\u00ebtyre humbjeve nuk mbulohet nga sigurimet. Vet\u00ebm rreth nj\u00eb e pesta e humbjeve t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme ishte e siguruar, nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebr that\u00ebsirat, val\u00ebt e t\u00eb nxehtit dhe zjarret mbulimi bie n\u00eb vet\u00ebm 10\u201311%. Shum\u00eb prej d\u00ebmeve jan\u00eb indirekte: prodhim m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt bujq\u00ebsor, humbje or\u00ebsh pune, d\u00ebmtime t\u00eb ekosistemeve dhe ndikime n\u00eb sh\u00ebndet, t\u00eb cilat jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira p\u00ebr t\u2019u matur dhe siguruar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kjo po i l\u00eb qeverit\u00eb n\u00eb rolin e \u201csiguruesit t\u00eb fundit\u201d. Vet\u00ebm kat\u00ebr vende t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb \u2013 Austria, Franca, Hungaria dhe Italia \u2013 kan\u00eb fonde t\u00eb dedikuara p\u00ebr katastrofat. Pjesa tjet\u00ebr mb\u00ebshtetet kryesisht te rialokimet e buxhetit, t\u00eb cilat mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb ngadalta. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, Bruegel vler\u00ebson se fondet e BE-s\u00eb p\u00ebr katastrofat p\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn 2028\u20132034 do t\u00eb jen\u00eb rreth 5 miliard\u00eb euro, shum\u00eb m\u00eb pak se nevojat reale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Franca: nj\u00eb fatur\u00eb deri n\u00eb 15 miliard\u00eb euro<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Franca ka b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb nga vler\u00ebsimet m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha deri tani. Ministrja p\u00ebr Tranzicionin Ekologjik, Monique Barbut, deklaroi m\u00eb 12 gusht se val\u00ebt e t\u00eb nxehtit t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti mund t\u2019i kushtojn\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb franceze 10\u201315 miliard\u00eb euro, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb kostot direkte dhe indirekte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kjo shum\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e barabart\u00eb me 0.3\u20130.5% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb, n\u00eb nj\u00eb ekonomi q\u00eb pritet t\u00eb rritet vet\u00ebm me 0.7%. Megjithat\u00eb, vler\u00ebsimi u kund\u00ebrshtua menj\u00ebher\u00eb. Instituti francez i statistikave INSEE mohoi se kishte prodhuar nj\u00eb parashikim t\u00eb till\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa ministria m\u00eb pas sqaroi se shifra ishte nj\u00eb p\u00ebrllogaritje e saj, bazuar n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat historike t\u00eb INSEE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Spanja p\u00ebrballet me nj\u00eb fatur\u00eb tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb. Deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb korrikut ishin djegur rreth 172,400 hektar\u00eb. Vet\u00ebm kostoja e shuarjes s\u00eb zjarreve vler\u00ebsohet n\u00eb 1.7\u20133.3 miliard\u00eb euro, pa p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb restaurimin e zonave t\u00eb d\u00ebmtuara.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Problemi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm sa kushton katastrofa, por edhe si matet<\/p>\n\n\n\n Portugalia ilustron nj\u00eb dob\u00ebsi tjet\u00ebr: munges\u00ebn e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb integruara p\u00ebr t\u00eb matur koston reale t\u00eb zjarreve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Autoriteti portugez i mbrojtjes civile ka pranuar se nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundur t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktohet me rigorozitet kostoja totale e nj\u00eb ngjarjeje t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb, pasi t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat financiare dhe operacionale ndodhen n\u00eb sisteme t\u00eb ndryshme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sipas EEA, p\u00ebr t\u00eb llogaritur si\u00e7 duhet kostot indirekte do t\u00eb duhej t\u00eb kombinoheshin t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat p\u00ebr ngjarjen me t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat mbi pun\u00ebsimin, sh\u00ebndetin, transportin, energjin\u00eb, bujq\u00ebsin\u00eb dhe treguesit makroekonomik\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u00eb ardhurat q\u00eb nuk vijn\u00eb kurr\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Shpenzimet publike jan\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00ebra an\u00eb e ekuacionit. Katastrofat klimatike d\u00ebmtojn\u00eb edhe rritjen ekonomike dhe, rrjedhimisht, t\u00eb ardhurat nga taksat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb e Bruegel tregon se ekonomit\u00eb mund t\u00eb mbeten m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla edhe vite pas nj\u00eb ngjarjeje ekstreme: PBB-ja \u00ebsht\u00eb mesatarisht 1.5% m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt dy vjet pas nj\u00eb vale t\u00eb t\u00eb nxehtit dhe 3% m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt kat\u00ebr vjet pas nj\u00eb that\u00ebsire. Vet\u00ebm that\u00ebsira e vitit 2022 uli rritjen e PBB-s\u00eb p\u00ebr frym\u00eb n\u00eb BE me 1.35%, duke shkaktuar nj\u00eb humbje prej rreth 203 miliard\u00eb eurosh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb ver\u00eb, Triodos Bank e vler\u00ebson koston e temperaturave ekstreme p\u00ebr ekonomit\u00eb e BE-s\u00eb n\u00eb rreth 180 miliard\u00eb euro, ose af\u00ebrsisht 1% t\u00eb prodhimit ekonomik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n N\u00eb Gjermani, nivelet rekord t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb Rhine-it mund t\u00eb ulin rritjen ekonomike t\u00eb tremujorit t\u00eb tret\u00eb me rreth 0.2%, edhe pse ekspert\u00ebt nuk presin nj\u00eb goditje t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme ndaj ekonomis\u00eb. Rhine-i \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb arterie e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme transporti dhe logjistike, por prek vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fatura p\u00ebrfundon te ushqimet<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Nj\u00eb nga efektet m\u00eb t\u00eb dukshme p\u00ebr konsumator\u00ebt shfaqet me vones\u00eb n\u00eb \u00e7mimet e ushqimeve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Komisioni Evropian ka ulur me 5% parashikimin p\u00ebr prodhimin e vajit t\u00eb ullirit n\u00eb BE, kryesisht p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnieje prej 18% n\u00eb Greqi. N\u00eb Spanj\u00eb, prodhimi i drith\u00ebrave pritet t\u00eb bjer\u00eb nga 24 milion\u00eb ton\u00eb n\u00eb pak m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 18.5 milion\u00eb ton\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Oxford Economics parashikon se temperaturat e larta dhe that\u00ebsira mund t\u2019i shtojn\u00eb deri n\u00eb 1% inflacionit t\u00eb ushqimeve n\u00eb eurozon\u00eb vitin e ardhsh\u00ebm. Efekti transmetohet gradualisht nga l\u00ebnd\u00ebt e para te bujq\u00ebsia, p\u00ebrpunimi dhe m\u00eb pas te shitja me pakic\u00eb, me \u00e7do hallk\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb marr\u00eb nj\u00eb ose dy muaj p\u00ebr ta reflektuar rritjen e kostove.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Institucionet ekonomike po i trajtojn\u00eb tashm\u00eb k\u00ebto ver\u00ebra jo si anomali t\u00eb p\u00ebrkohshme, por si nj\u00eb faktor t\u00eb q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm ekonomik. Oxford Economics i ka p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb kostot n\u00eb parashikimet baz\u00eb, duke vler\u00ebsuar se inflacioni i ushqimeve n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn afatmesme do t\u00eb jet\u00eb mesatarisht rreth 2.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rreziku: nj\u00eb cik\u00ebl q\u00eb vet\u00ebp\u00ebrforcohet<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Bruegel e p\u00ebrshkruan k\u00ebt\u00eb mekaniz\u00ebm si nj\u00eb \u201ccik\u00ebl vdekjeprur\u00ebs klimatik t\u00eb borxhit sovran\u201d. Humbjet nga katastrofat ulin rritjen ekonomike dhe t\u00eb ardhurat tatimore, zgjerojn\u00eb deficitin dhe rrisin kostot e huamarrjes. Kjo, nga ana tjet\u00ebr, l\u00eb m\u00eb pak hap\u00ebsir\u00eb p\u00ebr investime n\u00eb parandalim dhe p\u00ebrshtatje, duke rritur rrezikun e d\u00ebmeve t\u00eb ardhshme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sipas Bank\u00ebs Qendrore Evropiane, nj\u00eb that\u00ebsir\u00eb q\u00eb ndodh nj\u00eb her\u00eb n\u00eb 25 vjet do t\u00eb vinte n\u00eb rrezik pothuajse 15% t\u00eb prodhimit t\u00eb eurozon\u00ebs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Megjithat\u00eb, BE-ja shpenzon rreth 29 miliard\u00eb euro n\u00eb vit p\u00ebr p\u00ebrshtatjen klimatike, nd\u00ebrsa nevojat e vler\u00ebsuara variojn\u00eb nga 35 miliard\u00eb deri n\u00eb 500 miliard\u00eb euro n\u00eb vit. Sipas Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara, \u00e7do euro e investuar n\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatjen ndaj klim\u00ebs mund t\u00eb gjeneroj\u00eb deri n\u00eb 10 euro humbje t\u00eb shmangura.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Mesazhi p\u00ebr financat publike \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb i qart\u00eb: kostoja e mosinvestimit n\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatje klimatike mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e lart\u00eb se kostoja e parandalimit. Vera e nxeht\u00eb nuk p\u00ebrfundon kur bien temperaturat. Fatura e saj mund t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb shfaqet n\u00eb buxhete, ekonomi dhe \u00e7mime p\u00ebr vite me radh\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n